English Article

Unrealistic expectations: On India and Russia- Ukraine peace

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s visit to Russia had outcomes of potential bilateral and geopolitical consequence. At the meet of high-level security officials of the BRICS grouping, his one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese Foreign Minister and senior Chinese Communist Party Politburo official Wang Yi were in the spotlight as well. The meet of BRICS NSAs came ahead of the BRICS summit in October which will bring Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the leaders of Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia together for the first time since the grouping was expanded in 2023. The Doval-Wang meeting was no less important, given that the two high-level officials were meeting in the wake of intensified India-China contact to resolve the four-year-old military standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Their decision to “redouble their efforts” with “urgency” to complete disengagement along the LAC indicates that they hope to make progress in time before a possible Modi-Xi meet at the BRICS summit. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s comment that 75% of the disengagement has been completed seems to point to the government’s determination to cease hostilities with China, albeit not one that would actually see a reversion to the situation at the LAC prior to 2020. Finally, there was Mr. Doval’s meeting with Mr. Putin, which was a rare protocol exception. Mr. Doval’s comments, that he had been sent by Mr. Modi to brief Mr. Putin “personally” about the Modi Ukraine visit could mean that India is essaying a more mediatory role in peace-making.

If the government is indeed serious about such a role, it must be clear about what it entails. While officials have frequently said India has “conveyed messages” between Russia, Ukraine, and western countries during the war, mediating will require India to expend considerable goodwill, time and patience to achieve results. Türkiye, Indonesia and Hungary have been speaking to both sides since the 2022 invasion, and there are now many peace proposals from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Mr. Putin, the Bürgenstock Communiqué, and even a six-point proposal by Brazil and China. The conflict is far from stable with ominous signs of an escalation including Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, Russian missile strikes, and Mr. Zelenskyy’s persistent demand to be allowed to carry out long-range strikes on Russia using American and British hardware. Mr. Modi’s travel to the U.S. this month for UN meetings, the Quad Summit and another meeting with Mr. Zelenskyy possibly, followed by his visit to Russia for the BRICS summit will carry much responsibility, but India’s efforts at peacemaking must not be over-burdened by unrealistic expectations.