English Article

El Nino and Monsoon

No El Nino expected, it will be a ‘Normal’ monsoon, says Skymet.

The southwest monsoon is likely to be “normal” in 2022, though rainfall in August, the second rainiest month, will likely be subdued, the private weather company Skymet said on Tuesday. “Normal is 98% of the historical average of 88 cm of rainfall for the four months from June to September,” it said. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to be rain deficit throughout the season. The northeastern States have a high base level of rainfall. In the south, Kerala and north interior Karnataka will get subdued rainfall in the core monsoon months of July and August. On the other hand, the key kharif crop regions of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh and the rain-fed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh would receive “above normal” rainfall, the agency said. The El Nino, characterised by a warming of temperatures in the Central Pacific and associated with poor rainfall over India, is not expected to surface this year. Its converse, or La Nina, had helped with two years of above normal rainfall in 2019 and 2020 and “normal” rainfall in 2021. “The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events... the occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out,” Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, said.