English Article

Challenge Next Door

Pakistan geo-economic transition can’t succeed without shift in its India policy.

The case for major reform to get Pakistan out of the multiple crises confronting it has been articulated by its Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, in recent years. The “Bajwa Doctrine” emphasises the importance of restoring peace within by putting down various internal insurgencies, reviving economic growth, reconciling with the neighbours, rebuilding ties with the US without abandoning the strategic partnership with China, and regaining its traditional political goodwill in the Gulf. General Bajwa tied together many of these ideas in a well-received speech last March. The National Security Policy document issued by Islamabad last week is an effort to codify the Bajwa Doctrine into an actionable statement of purpose and a strategy for its realisation. The document identifies a wide range of unexceptionable goals; what stands out is the ambition to integrate economic development into the traditional military conception of national security. The external complement to this is the emphasis on “geo-economics” in contrast to the traditional obsession of the Pakistan Army with “geopolitics”. The former focuses on trade and connectivity while the latter is about power and its projection. No one has a higher stake than India in the success of the Bajwa doctrine that calls for a Pakistan at peace with itself and the region. Does Pakistan, however, have the will and capability to implement it? One reason development took a back seat to security in Pakistan is the political dominance of the army that cornered most of the economic resources, in the name of protecting the nation from the “Indian threat”. Even if the army cedes some ground, can it crack the economic stranglehold of the small but entrenched rentier classes?